Natural Resource Competition Is Quietly Fueling Indo Pacific Flashpoints and Australia Should Take Note

28 November 2025 | By: Alexandra Longinidis, WiDA Member

For centuries, the natural wealth of the Indo Pacific has attracted outside powers, from European colonial empires to Japan’s early 20th century expansion.

The region’s abundance of minerals, spices, fertile land and fisheries has long shaped its political landscape. Yet that wealth is unevenly distributed: some states sit atop vast mineral basins while others rely heavily on imported food and fuel. These disparities have contributed to uneven development across the region and today they continue to shape strategic behaviour as much as ideology, nationalism or great power rivalry.

While commentators often frame Indo Pacific tensions as contests over identity, systems of government or military influence, many of the region’s most persistent flashpoints have deep resource roots. Competition for energy, minerals, water and fisheries plays a far larger role in regional geopolitics than is commonly acknowledged.

The Resource Roots of Indo Pacific Flashpoints

South China Sea

The South China Sea is often described as a strategic theatre because of its shipping lanes but that understates how natural resources drive behaviour. Beneath its seabed lie billions of barrels of oil, trillions of cubic feet of natural gas and some of the world’s most productive fishing grounds. For claimant states, control of reefs and shoals is not just symbolic, it grants exclusive access to energy reserves, fisheries and economic rights under international law.

The construction of artificial islands, deployment of maritime forces and expansive territorial claims are not just military manoeuvres. They are efforts to secure long term energy, food and maritime influence. Incidents involving oil rigs and fishing vessels demonstrate how disputes over resource access can escalate quickly, threatening regional stability.

East China Sea

The dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands may appear minor on a map but the surrounding waters are thought to hold significant hydrocarbon deposits. While nationalist sentiment and great power competition intensify tensions, the underlying incentive to control energy reserves and fisheries drives strategic behaviour. The islands themselves are uninhabited yet the wealth of resources in the surrounding waters explains why they have become a flashpoint in the Indo Pacific.

Taiwan

Tensions around Taiwan are overwhelmingly political, centred on sovereignty, identity and strategic posture between East and West, however resource dynamics are increasingly part of the backdrop. Energy exploration and drilling activity by China in Taiwan’s Exclusive Economic Zone signals that access to resources is now integrated into broader grey zone pressure tactics. Control of surrounding waters affects energy security and fishing rights, adding a practical incentive to political ambitions.

The Korean Peninsula

Conflict on the Korean Peninsula is rooted in ideology and historical rivalries but natural resources add a significant dimension. North Korea holds most of the peninsula’s mineral wealth, including iron ore, coal, gold, magnesite, lead, zinc, tungsten and graphite. For neighbouring powers, access to these minerals offers both economic gain and strategic leverage. Investments in infrastructure and cross border trade suggest that resource competition complements the political and military drivers of tension in the region.

The Role of Climate Change on Strategic Pressure

Across the Indo Pacific, resource scarcity is intensifying as a driver of instability. Overfishing, water stress and climate impacts are not just environmental concerns, they are direct multipliers of geopolitical tension. Energy and mineral resources underpin modern technology, defence and clean energy transitions, while food security pressures make fisheries and agricultural supply lines strategic assets. Rising populations and climate-driven stress are layering additional pressure on already tense flashpoints.

Why This Matters for Australia

Australia is a major exporter of energy, agricultural products and critical minerals and an increasingly strategic partner for countries seeking reliable supply. The signing of the United States Australia Critical Minerals Framework illustrates that resources now sit at the centre of alliance planning, demonstrating that critical minerals can serve as a geopolitical currency.

Australia’s diplomacy and regional leadership will increasingly revolve around proactive resource engagement, not just trade and defence. Development assistance, food security partnerships, climate resilience and critical mineral cooperation all offer avenues for Australia to shape regional outcomes. As regional states compete for sea control not only for sovereignty but for resource access, instability could threaten Australia’s trade routes and supply lines, impacting the maritime security enjoyed since the end of World War II.

Defence and industrial planning must assume that resource-driven tensions could spark conflict or coercion. This includes building a sovereign industrial base resilient to geopolitical shocks while leveraging Australia’s influence to reduce the risk that competition over resources triggers instability.

Conclusion

Environmental pressures, population growth and the global transition to renewable technologies are sharpening competition for the resources that fuel modern economies. Nations will face growing incentives to secure or contest access to minerals, fuels, fisheries and water.

For Australia, this trajectory matters. It touches sovereignty, export markets, alliance relationships and regional stability. Critical minerals, diplomacy, maritime security and defence and industrial policy will increasingly shape Australia’s future. Ignoring the resource dimension of Indo Pacific flashpoints is no longer an option, understanding it is now a strategic imperative.

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